If we look back at the history of the latest real estate downturn, and according to Realty Trac, the current wave of foreclosures started roughly in July of 2007. In August of the same year the number of foreclosures peaked at close to 250,000 fillings. That monthly number is somewhere near what some call the “plateau” seen in February of 2010 but yet far off from the average month during any given month of 2006 of less than 100,000 nationwide. Let’s forget for now the fillings of Bankruptcies filed during the same periods.
Currently, FHA represents the majority of purchase loans in the US. According to the HUD/FHA guidelines the eligibility for the seasoning (the “waiting time”) of a foreclosure before an individual can purchase again is 3 years. 2 years for a chapter 7 bankruptcy and 1 year for a chapter 13 bankruptcy with proof of on time payments to the trustee. Over the last few months I have received significant amounts of emails and calls asking “when can I buy gain?”.
At first the idea of a defaulted home owner buying another property seemed outlandish but when we go back and realize that the main reason that the cycle started was due to a sub prime mortgages that after a 2 year teaser rate became impossible to pay back at rates close to or, in some cases, above 10%. Fast forward 3 years and here we are in a completely different environment with rates at historical lows of 5% for a 30 year fixed. Home values have decreased across the country and some markets are down 25%. Granted that the aggressive underwriting guidelines are gone for forgettable future and now the pendulum has moved almost to much in the other direction there will be a true opportunity for the hard working American that has not lost sight of the dream of owning a home.
Although the unemployment rate represents a HUGE issue for the overall economy it may not be the case for the housing market. If we do the math and subtract the current 11% in California versus the +/-4.5% that we had, before the economy took a nose dive, that only eliminates an additional 5% of the general population but with home ownership at historical lows of 64.5% that number truly eliminates less than 2% of the former homeowners.
We all know that price is the point at which the supply curve meets the demand. The fact is that under normal circumstances the largest portion of the population that becomes “new homeowners” are couples that have recently gotten married or had a baby. That population has not gone away. There are just as many people getting married and having kids in 2010 as there were in 2007. One last potential increase in demand is the possibility of our troops coming home and obtaining financing via the VA system. If we add all these factors together the outlook may not be as bleak some economist have already predicted further declines for the remainder of the year.
Could we have seen the worst of the housing market in our lifetimes and face greener pastures? I sure hope so.
